Obtaining Credible Evidence of “Long” Long-Term Outcomes

Another challenge that The Rucks Group team sees across projects is what we call “aspirational goals.” This phrase is how we refer to goals and objectives that will likely not occur until after a project’s grant funding ends. Many projects have them. The question is: How do you measure them?

We struggled with measuring aspirational goals until, through a conversation with another evaluator, the idea of using the transitive mathematical property to address this challenge created an “aha” moment. 

As you may (or may not) recall from math class, the transitive property is this:

If a = b, and b = c, then a = c.

We can apply this mathematical property to the evaluation of grant-funded projects as well.

If, for instance, a college receives a three-year grant to increase the number of underrepresented individuals in a non-traditional field, progress toward the goal (which is unlikely to occur within the three-year time frame when the first year will be dedicated to implementing the grant) can be gauged using a sequence of propositions that follow the logic of the transitive property:

  • Proposition A = Start with a known phenomenon that is linked to the desired outcome.

Green and Green (2003) [1] argue that to increase the number of workers in the field, the pipeline needs to be increased.

Proposition B = Establish that the project’s outcomes are linked to Proposition A.


The current project has increased the pipeline by increasing the number of underrepresented individuals declaring this field as a major.


  • Proposition C = Argue that while the project (because of time) has not demonstrated the desired outcome, based on established knowledge it likely will.

If the number of individual majors increased, assuming a similar rate of retention, then there will be more individuals graduating and prepared to work in the field.


By using the transitive property it is possible to create a persuasive evidence-based projection that by increasing the number of individuals majoring in the field and in the pipeline to become workers, the project has instigated the changes to achieve its aspirational goals.


[1] This is a fictitious citation of illustration purposes only.